Richmond VA Demographics
Population projections, age-structure shifts, migration patterns, and school enrollment data shaping the real estate landscape through 2035.
1.162M
2025 estimate
+10.2%
+118,000 residents by 2035
~36%
Of VA domestic in-migrants (Weldon Cooper)
Ages 65+
+25% projected growth
Executive Forecast
10-year demographic outlook for the Richmond metro
1.162M → 1.280M
+118,000 residents (+10.2%) by 2035
0.96% → 0.85%
Annual growth rate decelerating but still positive
Families → Empty-Nesters
Shifting from school-age families to empty-nesters and remote-working millennials
Key Insight: While headline population growth remains healthy at 10.2% over the decade, the internal composition shift is more consequential for real estate than the raw numbers. Declining school-age populations reduce new-family housing demand while surging 55+ cohorts create intense demand for walkable, downsized living near healthcare and amenities. Meanwhile, remote-working millennials (25-44) are the primary engine of single-family absorption.
Population Projections
Metro and city population trajectory through 2035
| Metric | 2025 | 2030 (Proj.) | 2035 (Proj.) | 10-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Metro Population | 1,162,000 | 1,208,000 | 1,280,000 | +118,000 (10.2%) |
| Richmond City Population | 232,000 | 243,000 | 254,000 | +22,000 (9.5%) |
| Annual Growth Rate | 0.96% | 0.78% | 0.85% | Slowing trend |
Population Growth Projection
Richmond metro & city population in thousands (2020-2035)
Age Structure Shift
Current (2025) vs. projected (2035) population by age group, in thousands
Ages 0-4
-3.5K
Ages 5-19
-2.5K
Ages 25-44
+26K
Ages 55-64
+23K
Ages 65+
+33K
Migration Source Breakdown
Where Richmond's new residents come from (2020-2024)
Age Structure Transformation
How the population composition reshapes housing demand
| Age Group | 2025 | 2035 (Proj.) | Change | Property Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ages 0-4 | ~58,500 | ~55,000 | -3,500 (-6%) | Declining demand for new family homes |
| Ages 5-19 | ~197,500 | ~195,000 | -2,500 (-1.3%) | Surplus school capacity emerging |
| Ages 25-44 | ~279,000 | ~305,000 | +26,000 (+9.3%) | Remote workers driving single-family demand |
| Ages 55-64 | ~115,000 | ~138,000 | +23,000 (+20%) | Downsizing demand; walkability premium |
| Ages 65+ | ~132,000 | ~165,000 | +33,000 (+25%) | Aging-in-place; proximity to services critical |
Migration Composition
Who is moving to Richmond and why
Virginia's Migration Magnet
Richmond captured ~36% of all domestic in-migrants to Virginia (Weldon Cooper Center). Only ~14% of Richmond's in-movers came from out of state — most growth is intra-Virginia, especially from Northern Virginia.
Northern Virginia Exodus: Remote work combined with housing costs drove relocation from the NoVA corridor. Ages 25–45 are the largest share of RVA moves.
Migrant Profile
60%
Millennials (25-44)
48%
Remote-Work Enabled
$150K-$300K
Household Income
Low
School Priority
Not primarily seeking school quality -- prioritizing lifestyle, cost savings, and equity accumulation.
The Housing Arbitrage Play
Arlington, VA
Software Engineer @ $180K
$700K+ median
Typical home price
Chesterfield, VA
Same salary, remote
$550K home
Pockets $150K+ in equity
School Enrollment Outlook
District enrollment trends and property implications
| District | Current Status | Projected Trend | Property Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
Chesterfield | ~64,000 enrolled; 93.5% capacity; 15 schools above 100% | +3,469 (+5%); approaching overcrowding | Boundary shifts likely; watch rezoning |
Henrico | ~50,463 enrolled (2023-24) | Slight growth (+1-2%) | Western stable; eastern side faces pressure |
New Kent | ~3,500 enrolled; all schools "On Track" | Rapid growth (+8-12%) | High boundary-shift risk |
Richmond City | ~20,819 enrolled; declining from 23,755 (2013) | Flat to decline (-5.5% since 2019) | RPS losing enrollment despite city population growth; magnet concentration. |
Watch for boundary shifts: Chesterfield at 93.5% capacity and New Kent's rapid growth create high probability of attendance-zone redistricting within 3-5 years. Properties near zone boundaries face assignment uncertainty that can impact values by 5-10%.
Market Scenarios
Three forward-looking scenarios for annual property appreciation
3-4%
Annual appreciation
Return-to-office mandates reduce remote-work migration
Higher interest rates persist, cooling demand
Suburban markets underperform urban cores
5-6%
Annual appreciation
Steady in-migration continues at current pace
Urban cores outperform distant suburbs
Supply shortage maintains upward price pressure
7-8%
Annual appreciation
Corporate decentralization accelerates
Major employer relocations to RVA metro
Infrastructure investment unlocks new supply corridors
Scenario Probability Distribution