Richmond Real Estate Market Pulse: July 2026

This is a closed-sales pulse, not a full market report. We don't track active listing counts or months-of-supply in this pipeline, so you won't find inventory or 'price cut' percentages below — anything we can't verify from primary sold data, we leave out rather than estimate. What we do have is clean: 558 single-family homes that closed across the Richmond metro in a 28-day window, pulled from one integrated Zillow 'recently sold' map search and scraped July 12, 2026.

The headline

Median closed price is $555,000 — up from June's $520,000 median, though the two scrapes used different search filters (more on that below), so that comparison is directional, not exact. The number that moved cleanly either way: 85.1% of the 549 sales with a Zestimate closed BELOW it, at a median gap of -4.9%. In June, only about 40% of sales beat their Zestimate (i.e. most closed at or below it too) but the median gap then was 0.0% — dead-on. This month, the algorithm is running noticeably hot relative to what homes are actually closing for.

Closed Sales (28-day window)

558

Single-family, 33 ZIPs, scraped Jul 12

Median Sale Price

$555,000

Range $200K–$3.17M

Median $/Sqft

$220

Median size 2,537 sqft

Median Days on Zillow

16d

Avg 16.5d; search capped at ≤30d

Sold Below Zestimate

85.1%

Median gap -4.9% (n=549 w/ Zestimate)

Median Tax / Sale Ratio

85.3%

Assessed value ÷ sale price

County-by-County Breakdown

County	Sales	Median Price	Median $/Sqft	Median DOM
Chesterfield County	232	$497,450	$203	18d
Henrico County	142	$688,000	$236	16d
Richmond City	129	$630,000	$271	16d
Hanover County	47	$534,950	$215	16d
Goochland County	8	$770,000	$250	12d

Chesterfield is the volume leader (232 of 558 sales, 42%) and the value tier — median $497K, the only county under $500K. Richmond City posts the highest $/sqft ($271) despite a lower median price than Henrico or Goochland, which tracks with the smaller, denser urban lots covered in our ZIP-level pricing coverage. Goochland's n=8 is too thin to treat as a county trend — read it as a handful of Manakin Sabot-area estate sales, not a market signal.

By Price Tier

Price Tier	Sales	Median DOM	Median $/Sqft	Median GRM
Under $400K	80	16.5d	$168	11.6
$400K–$600K	225	16d	$213	14.2
$600K–$1M	186	17d	$243	17.7
Over $1M	67	16d	$369	26.2

Days-on-market barely moves across price tiers this month — 16 to 17 days regardless of whether a home is $350K or $1.2M. That's a change from the pattern national coverage usually expects (luxury sitting longer); at least in this 30-day window, everything from starter homes to seven-figure estates is moving at a similar clip. Gross rent multiplier climbs steadily with price, from 11.6 under $400K to 26.2 over $1M — the expected signature of cash-flow-friendly entry homes vs. appreciation-driven luxury purchases.

The Zestimate Gap Widened — Here's the Real Number

In June's 176-sale scrape, the median sold-to-Zestimate ratio was exactly 1.000 — the algorithm was, in aggregate, dead-on. This month's 558-sale scrape tells a different story: median gap -4.9% (homes closing below Zestimate) and 85.1% of the 549 sales with a Zestimate closed under it, versus roughly 40% beating it in June. Put simply: a much larger majority of homes are now selling for less than Zillow's algorithm projects.

VERIFIED, with a caveat — different search filters, not just different months

The June and July scrapes were pulled from differently-configured Zillow map searches. June's search had no minimum square footage and covered a 7-day sold window; July's search required 1,750+ sqft, 3+ beds, 1.5+ baths, and a 30-day window. That means part of this month's Zestimate shift could reflect a different mix of homes (larger, pricier, HOA-capped at $300/mo) rather than a pure month-over-month market move. We're flagging this rather than smoothing over it — the 85.1%-below-Zestimate figure is real and verified for this dataset, but we can't cleanly attribute all of it to "the market cooled" versus "we sampled a different slice of the market."

What This Snapshot Doesn't Tell You

•No active-inventory count. We report closed sales only — no months-of-supply, no active-listing trend.
•No true month-over-month comparison. June and July came from different search filters (see caveat above); treat any cross-month delta as directional.
•No homes under 1,750 sqft. This month's search filtered them out entirely, so starter and compact-home pricing is invisible in this snapshot — see our companion piece on why that matters for the $/sqft story.
•Gross rent multiplier only. GRM figures use Zillow's Rent Zestimate, not actual signed leases, and ignore vacancy, taxes, insurance, and HOA costs.

Bottom Line

July 2026 Snapshot Summary

Median closed price across 558 Richmond-metro single-family sales sits at $555,000, with Chesterfield the volume leader and Richmond City the $/sqft leader. The clearest verified shift from June is Zestimate calibration: homes are closing well below their Zestimate far more often (85.1% vs ~40%), though a change in search filters between scrapes means this isn't a clean apples-to-apples comparison. Days-on-market stayed flat and fast (16-17 days) across every price tier, from under $400K to over $1M.

Data note

Analysis based on data/sources/rva-recent-sold-2026-07-12.csv — 558 single-family homes closed across the Richmond metro in a 28-day window, captured by an integrated Zillow 'recently sold' map-search scrape (filters: price $200K-$3.5M, 3+ beds, 1.5+ baths, 1,750+ sqft, lot 1,000+ sqft, HOA ≤$300/mo, days-on-Zillow ≤30). Medians are used throughout to limit the pull of outliers. County assignment is inferred from the Zillow-reported city field (e.g. Glen Allen → Henrico County, Midlothian/Moseley/North Chesterfield → Chesterfield County). This snapshot covers closed sales only; it is not a full active-inventory market report.